One of the toughest challenges in nature-based carbon markets is permanence: How do we ensure that carbon stored in forests today stays there for decades—or centuries?
Current systems rely heavily on buffer pools to cover future risks. But as climate volatility increases, these static models are struggling to keep up.
The American Forest Foundation (AFF) has released a concept paper proposing a new approach to one of the most persistent challenges in nature-based climate action: permanence.
“A Trust for Permanence” lays out a novel financial mechanism designed to ensure the long-term durability of carbon credits generated by Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) – a critical ingredient in global climate mitigation.
What’s the Problem?
Ensuring that forest carbon stays locked away for centuries is hard. Most current approaches rely on buffer pools—static reserves of credits to offset possible future carbon reversals.
But as Lynn Riley, Lead Scientist at AFF, puts it:
We need to account for the risk inherent in working with nature—and manage long-term reversal liability in ways that adapt to changing conditions.
What’s New?
Instead of setting aside a fixed % of credits to offset future losses, AFF’s approach would:
- Monetize all credits upfront
- Invest proceeds in a managed trust fund
- Use funds to actively address reversals as they occur
- Blend tools like insurance, tech solutions & permanent storage
- Align price with meaningful climate durability
This approach shifts the focus from prediction to preparedness – using active capital management to support long-term durability. Rather than predicting how much climate benefit to set aside today, this approach asks how much financial capacity is needed to maintain climate integrity over time.
As Lynn Riley explains:
Rather than estimating how much to set aside now for centuries of risk, we build financial capacity today to flexibly manage it over time.
Why It Matters
- Creating a more bankable, finance-aligned permanence structure
- Strengthens confidence in NCS credits
- Addresses fund-based permanence solutions mentioned by ICVCM & Article 6
- Builds a bridge between nature-based credits and durable climate outcomes
- Reduces credit withholding while maintaining climate integrity
- Provides flexibility as climate and ecological conditions evolve
- Offers a path to scale while safeguarding climate outcomes
This could reshape how investors, project developers, and policymakers approach permanence – a key hurdle for trust and scalability in voluntary carbon markets.
Read the concept paper via the American Forest Foundation
Authors are Nathan Truitt and Lynn Riley
About The American Forest Foundation
The American Forest Foundation is a national organization that empowers family forest owners to deliver meaningful conservation impact. The organization’s programs, the Family Forest Carbon Program and the American Tree Farm System, help landowners implement forest management practices to care for the health and productivity of their woodlands. To learn more about the American Forest Foundation and the Family Forest Carbon Program, visit www.forestfoundation.org.
